Will North Korea have a nuclear explosion?Why crypto bettors rate this as more likely than you think

virtual currency bettor polymarket, In a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, consider the following possibilities: north korea The size of the nuclear explosion is small, but not significant. The market for North Korea to “detonate a nuclear weapon of some capability by March 31, 2024” is trading at around 5%.

what happened: Market rules state that “includes offensive uses, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations,” but excludes failed detonations, fake weapons, and dirty bombs.

Although the trading volume of approximately $80,000 is relatively modest, a single trader could potentially earn more than $50,000 if the market says yes.

Interest in prediction markets has increased significantly, with Polymarket hitting an all-time high of $50 million in trading volume in January 2024, and interest in politically-related bets is increasing.

Despite the abundance of election-related markets, users in the United States are blocked from placing bets by order of the CFTC.

Also Read: 5 Mistakes Crypto Investors Should Avoid or You're Likely to 'Loose Money': Former Ark Invest Pro

why is it important:While it may seem like a high possibility to outsiders, a Daily Beast article discusses why North Korea's nuclear weapons test in 2024 is not impossible.

Kim Jong-un's war preparations, fueled by Chinese and Russian-backed ambitions, have heightened U.S. concerns. In late January, North Korea launched three cruise missiles within a week as part of an ongoing saber attack on its southern neighbor South Korea.

The Daily Beast quoted Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and longtime South Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, as saying that the North Korean regime “launched intercontinental ballistic missiles over Japan, carried multiple warheads, “It has the potential to demonstrate the capabilities of an atmospheric reentry vehicle.”

Bruce Bechtol, a former Pentagon intelligence analyst, believes “a resumption of intensive testing of North Korea's ballistic missile systems and possibly a nuclear test” is on the agenda.

North Korea has so far conducted nuclear warhead tests six times in 2006, 2009, and 2013, and twice in 2016 and 2017.

What's next: Prediction markets, such as the Republican vice presidential candidate market, continue to attract bettors and analysts looking for concrete probabilities alike.

Read next: Trump vs. Biden: Poll finds one candidate is overwhelmingly seen as more competent at managing the economy

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