Many of the world's most popular democratic leaders are not very sure about democracy
El Salvador's re-elected President Nayib Boucle triumphantly declared earlier this month that “all opposition parties have been crushed.”
Bukele was re-elected on February 4th, winning a landslide victory with over 80% of the vote. The results were not surprising. Since taking office in 2019, he has helped end the gang wars that made the country the murder capital of the world less than a decade ago. El Salvador now has the lowest murder rate in Latin America, a quarter of what it was when Bukele first took power. More than 90 percent of Salvadorans feel their neighborhoods are safe or very safe.
On the surface, Bukele's re-election appears to be a story of a capable leader gaining and reaping the benefits of public trust. That account hides a dark reality.
Bukele's government wants to achieve results at all costs. In 2020, Bukele sent armed troops to the Capitol to intimidate Congress. In March 2022, Bukele asked Congress to declare a “state of exception” and give the government broad discretion to jail criminal suspects and deny them legal counsel. Human rights groups have accused the government of widespread violations of civil rights and due process. Journalists are being spied on and harassed. El Salvador currently has the highest incarceration rate in the world, with approximately one in 50 people in prison.
Perhaps most damningly, Bukele should not have been allowed to vote this month. According to El Salvador's constitution, a president cannot serve two consecutive terms, but Bukele had no intention of resigning. In 2021, Bukele and his party will pack the Supreme Court with friendly judges and argue that the constitution allows him to run again if he resigns six months before his June 1 inauguration. He gave a fair judgment. Congress approved it on December 1st. Bukele asked for his leave and for his personal secretary to serve as interim president. This entire incident is a clear subversion of El Salvador's democratic institutions.
Mr. Bukele's assumption of the presidency has raised questions for Salvadorans and democracy watchers. Mr. Boucle helped bring peace to El Salvador by privatizing the government and breaking the rules. His successes increased public confidence in the government at a time when the strength of democratic institutions was weakening. Bukele is an overwhelmingly popular and contradictory threat to El Salvador's long-term stability. Perhaps it is a model that is attracting attention.
Bukele is not alone in gaining popular support while trampling on democratic institutions. Indeed, many of the most popular democratic leaders of the past decade can hardly be considered strong defenders of institutions.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the highest approval rating of any large democracy, at 78 percent. His popularity is due, among other things, to a growing economy, a popular anti-corruption campaign, and the promotion of divisive Hindu nationalism at the expense of the Muslim minority. His government has silenced independent journalists, threatened technology companies to remove information critical of him, and undermined judicial independence. Coupled with a sophisticated media campaign, Prime Minister Modi's policies have won the support of more than a billion Indians.
The case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has also come to light. He won the 2016 election in a landslide and, like Bukele, had a government defined by brutality. When he was mayor, Mr. Duterte boasted that he drove around in his car “looking for a showdown to kill.” He ordered officials to shoot drug traffickers and promised they would not face any consequences. International observers expressed disapproval, but the public gave it a favorable reception. Duterte remained extremely popular until his departure in 2022, typically reaching approval ratings in the mid-80s.
Bukele, Modi and Duterte all have similar stories of success. They gained popularity by addressing long-simmering dilemmas left by their predecessors, even if that meant trampling on democratic norms. It's a risky proposition, but it's popular for a reason. Other leaders are also paying attention.
“These policies are popular and Latin American leaders know it,” Gemma Croppe Santamaria, an expert on Latin American crime, told Al Jazeera. Honduras' leftist president, Xiomara Castro, was inspired by Boucle and is now leading her own gang crackdown.
The United States benefits from a longer and more stable democratic tradition than these countries. Still, we should all be equally troubled by how many of the conditions exist here that have led other democracies to embrace populism.
Americans are rapidly losing trust that the U.S. government is looking after their interests. The number of Americans who believe our democracy is working has hit an all-time low of 28%. Political scientist Yascha Mounku points out that increased bureaucratic influence, central bank independence, extensive judicial review, and money in politics are all important factors. As these interests became more powerful, the president and Congress lost influence.
The Biden administration, like its predecessor, is well aware of these challenges. It doesn't make things any easier. Presidents generally struggle to accomplish the agenda for which they were first elected. Even if there were broadly appealing legal reforms, a polarized media environment meant that about half the country would turn a blind eye.
This situation has led Americans to question whether the systems put in place to prevent abuse of power are really worth it. One-third of Americans believe that strong unelected leaders are better than weak elected leaders. 42% of Democrats think the president should have the power to remove judges if their decisions are “contrary to the national interest.” Clearly, many people have reached their breaking point with their current situation.
Some Republicans are now looking to El Salvador for inspiration on what a good president looks like. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio visited El Salvador in April and praised Mr. Boucle and his populist strongman policies. There is good reason to believe that if Mr. Trump returns to power, he will do everything in his power to govern like Mr. Bukele.
Much has been written about President Trump's intent to undermine American institutions to achieve his policy goals. Little has been written about how, if he succeeds in overthrowing America's democratic system, he could actually increase his popularity among some citizens fed up with America's stagnation. It's not clear. Look at El Salvador.
South Sudan's dictatorship has sent a death squad in pursuit of Peter Bial Ajak, who advocated peace and democracy. He is risking his life for freedom. He knows the risks firsthand. That is why we are honored to welcome Peter as a Senior Fellow.
— Uriel Epstein, RDI CEO
Check out Peter and Evan Mawalele's discussion of America's role in the global struggle for democracy.
