as Over 66,000 World leaders, negotiators, delegates and observers will discuss the grim news of greenhouse gas emissions this week at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in what is shaping up to be the hottest year on record. Facing a punch. Emissions are still rising, and the United States, one of the world's biggest carbon polluters, is likely to withdraw from the process altogether.
And after Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter will extract more fossil fuels and remove incentives for clean technology. , there is a possibility that Japan will withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. .
To meet international climate goals under the Paris Climate Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall rapidly. But a new report released this week by Global Carbon Budget, a research arm of the University of Exeter in the UK, says human production is on track to reach another record high this year, up 0.8% from last year. This trajectory means that the goal of keeping global average temperature increases below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) will be almost completely missed.
The conference, which will hammer out the details of how countries will do their part to combat climate change, has already gotten off to a rocky start, with countries struggling just to adopt an agenda. France and Argentina also withdrew their chief negotiators.
“We have just entered the hottest day, the hottest month, the hottest year and the hottest decade in history,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the conference. “Climate disasters are mounting and are hurting those who have done the least and those who have done the least.”
As such, momentum is slowing at a time when the world needs to do more than ever to limit warming, transition to clean energy, and adapt to the inevitable changes underway.
But it didn't stop. Although emissions are increasing, the rate of increase is slowing and a decline may be on the horizon. Wind and solar power are still rapidly increasing, and electric vehicles are gaining market share. Despite declining political will, trends are moving in the right direction for the climate. But progress is fragile and too slow.
What is currently increasing global emissions?
The think tank Climate Analytics predicted last year that there was a 70% chance that global emissions would start falling this year. New carbon budget findings show the world is likely to enter a 30% scenario. “I think their analysis is generally very robust and sound,” says climate analytics researcher Neil Grant. “It's still possible that emissions will fall this year, but it's certainly very unlikely.”
Digging into the top-line numbers for greenhouse gas emissions reveals the complex story behind why emissions are rising.
The main reason is that fossil fuel consumption is increasing. Oil and gas accounted for the bulk of this emissions increase, with coal a distant third. Although greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing, emissions have remained flat or decreased compared to some of the historically largest emitters. European Union emissions are falling. U.S. emissions remain stable. China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is expected to grow production by just 0.2% this year, one of the smallest increases in years.
Many developing countries, such as India, currently the world's third largest emitter, are bucking this trend. Although renewable energy deployment has increased significantly in India, energy from all sources, including fossil fuels, is still being developed. According to the Global Carbon Budget, India's fossil fuel emissions are expected to rise by 4.6% this year.
There are several additional factors that have driven up this year's emissions. Due to the prolonged effects of El Niño, global temperatures have reached record highs. Extreme heatwaves in India and China have boosted energy demand for cooling, which means burning more fossil fuels. “We are starting to see some negative feedback loops where the climate crisis itself is impacting the energy system and making it difficult to reduce emissions,” Grant said.
Still, there are some bright news. Already, more than 30 countries have successfully grown their economies while reducing carbon pollution, making it clear that coal, oil and natural gas are not the only path to prosperity. These countries have already peaked in emissions and are now on a downward trend, breaking a pattern that has lasted for nearly two centuries.
Pierre Friedlingstein, a researcher at the university, said: “We see that most countries in the world are on a trajectory that is close to peaking, even if they have not yet reached it. Emissions are decreasing. “Countries typically see emissions decline faster.” Exeter led the Global Carbon Budget report.
What makes the curve bend? Friedlingstein said this is because countries are switching to cleaner energy sources. That means switching from carbon-emitting coal to natural gas, which emits about half the greenhouse gases per unit of energy, or harnessing energy from the sun and wind, which emit almost zero emissions. Another important factor is that electrification of vehicles eliminates the need to burn oil. Improving energy efficiency also counteracts increases in energy demand.
While government policies initially drove these trends, the economy is now taking the lead. Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions often save money, and energy sources such as wind and solar power are often the cheapest way to supply electrons to the power grid.
It is important to note that burning fossil fuels is not the only way humans increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Damaging and destroying carbon-sucking landscapes such as forests, mangroves, wetlands, and grasslands also results in a net increase in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas to pay attention to. Methane, which is about 30 times more capable of trapping heat, also contributes to global warming. It can leak from natural gas infrastructure and is also a byproduct of agriculture.
Conversely, restoring ecosystems that absorb emissions from the atmosphere can reduce global warming. Unchecked deforestation is slowing in many parts of the world and beginning to reverse in others. “Long-term trends in tree planting are heading in the right direction,” Friedlingstein said. “This is something that helps balance fossil fuel emissions and the books.”
It's up to us where our greenhouse gas emissions go
Greenhouse gas emissions are currently increasing at a fraction of the pace they have been increasing through most of the industrial era, but there is currently no sign that they have peaked, and there is no guarantee that they will decline.
Friedlingstein said we are now entering an era in which emissions are plateauing and the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may be increasing to record levels. And the plateau may last for a long time. Environmental groups have warned that the ferocious demand for electricity from the data centers behind artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies will cause emissions to spike again, although much of that demand will still come from renewables and nuclear power. Environmental groups have not taken the lead so far. to carbon dioxide spikes.
On the other hand, countries can take deliberate steps to bend the emissions curve downwards at a faster rate. Countries need to set ambitious climate goals for themselves, invest in cleaner energy alternatives and take responsibility for themselves. “In some ways, this is a simple recipe,” Friedlingstein says.
In reality, extraordinary challenges remain.
Many countries are dealing with inflation, making it difficult to invest in large projects. Some people are concerned about securing energy resources amid concerns about international conflicts, such as the disruption of natural gas supplies in Europe due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many regions of the world experiencing the most severe damage from climate change are also those contributing the least to the problem and with the least resources to adapt.
Clean energy also needs to be expanded further. The same goes for energy efficiency. In 2023, approximately 30% of the world's electricity will come from low-emission sources. “While renewable energy is growing rapidly, demand is also growing faster,” Grant said. “And we know that the peak tipping point will occur when renewable energy grows faster than energy demand.” It added that countries facing the biggest increases in energy demand, the biggest spikes in air pollution, and the worst effects of climate change are skewed toward countries that face the biggest increases in energy demand, the biggest spikes in air pollution, and the worst effects of climate change.
The United Nations' Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimates that poor countries will need $1.3 trillion a year to combat global warming by 2035. This is once again becoming one of the biggest challenges at COP29, as negotiators consider who will pay how much and by when.
Although the world is likely to miss one of its most ambitious climate goals, the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions remains strong. Avoiding even a small amount of warming, even by one degree or a fraction of a degree, reduces damage, saves money, and saves lives. The open question is how much will be done to change course.
