Does Trump deserve credit for the Gaza ceasefire?

Could Donald Trump get the Gaza ceasefire that Joe Biden couldn't?

After months of inconclusive talks, a ceasefire between the Israeli government and Hamas appears to have finally been agreed just as Biden is about to leave office and take credit for Trump. .

Mr. Biden's team will rightly point out that it took months of painstaking diplomacy to bring about this result. The deal itself, which is awaiting final approval from the Israeli government, is similar to a proposal drafted by U.S., Egyptian and Qatari officials and announced by Biden in May.

But while there does seem to be broad agreement among diplomats and officials that Trump-related factors were crucial in ultimately clinching the deal, there is no clear consensus as to exactly why. There are various theories.

Trump intervened in two main ways.

First, in early December, he called on the nation to release the hostages by Inauguration Day, saying that if they were not released, the Middle East would become a “hellhole.” He did not say what that meant, but it effectively set a deadline. President Trump had hoped for an agreement by January 20th.

Second, in recent days, Trump's team, especially incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, has been directly involved in the process, pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions and agree to the deal.

Left-wing critics of Biden's Israel policy argue that Trump's intervention means that a ceasefire could have been reached sooner if Biden had been more willing to push for Israel, and that Biden and his team are too weak. They argue that they are either too incompetent or that this proves that they could have achieved a ceasefire too early. I would like Israel to do the same.

However, significant developments in the war in recent months have also likely increased both Israel and Hamas' desire to end the war.

From September to November, Israeli forces not only killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, but also significantly escalated the war with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, inflicting significant damage on Hezbollah and ultimately Many leaders were killed before a ceasefire was established in Lebanon. This would make Israel feel it could end the war from a stronger position, while Hamas would be further isolated and any hope of being helped by foreign intervention would seem to have ended.

In other words, the circumstances of the war have recently changed in ways that pave the way for a ceasefire. But the combination of Mr. Trump's deadline and his team's pressure on Mr. Netanyahu certainly appears to have been important in getting the deal across the finish line.

Major developments in the war late last year could pave the way for a ceasefire

Since Mr. Biden endorsed the ceasefire plan in May, there has been constant criticism of who is most responsible for the failure to reach an agreement.

U.S. officials have publicly blamed Hamas for being the “main obstacle” to a failed deal. The story has been complicated somewhat by Netanyahu's repeated public rejections of Biden's ceasefire proposals.

In fact, according to the Washington Post's Ishaan Tharoor, “Arab interlocutors and U.S. officials have also privately criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that Netanyahu is a new leader that Hamas does not want to accept. “They have repeatedly canceled transactions at their request.”

Netanyahu has long been under pressure from his far-right governing partners, who have the power to remove him from office, to continue the war even further. It eventually responded by launching devastating attacks against Hezbollah, which had been regularly firing rockets into northern Israel since late 2023 and forcing tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. Hezbollah has insisted it will not stop rocket attacks until the conflict in Gaza ends.

Israel's escalation in Lebanon was brutal, but it succeeded in dismantling Hezbollah. And while that was going on, Shinwar was discovered and killed in southern Gaza, giving Israel a symbolic victory in eliminating the mastermind of the October 7, 2023 attack.

This may have given Prime Minister Netanyahu a strategic and political advantage and signaled a new stance toward ending the war. Although we have less insight into Hamas' decision-making, the defeat of Hezbollah's key allies may also have increased their willingness to agree to a negotiated settlement.

In fact, reports throughout December suggested that a cease-fire agreement was nearing. However, the two sides engaged in intense negotiations over the details, and an agreement remained elusive.

That's why President Trump's Dec. 2 demand for the hostages to be released by Inauguration Day was important because it served as a deadline to force action for both parties, which were already increasingly inclined to reach an agreement. This may be the main reason.

How important was Witkoff's pressure on Netanyahu?

But President Trump's other major intervention came in recent days. At the time, he sent Mr. Witkoff to the Middle East to participate in negotiations and reiterated that he was taking deadlines very seriously, and that also applied to Israel.

After arriving in Israel, Witkoff reportedly told Netanyahu in blunt terms that he needed to make more compromises. Reports claim that this pressure, and Trump's involvement in general, led to change.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff's pressure on Mr. Netanyahu may also have helped the prime minister insist to his far-right coalition partners that a deal on the table was the best that could be reached, but Mr. It is currently unclear whether it will be maintained.

So it's debatable whether President Trump deserves full credit for the deal, 10%, or somewhere in between. But there seems to be little doubt that he played a useful role in getting it done.