Germany held a massive election last weekend. This left the ruling party on the central left, the ruling Social Democrats, and the ascendancendant of the conservative Christian Democratic coalition. The country's next leader, Friedrich Merz, took him to the radio after the results were announced and declared it was a time for the new Germany as well as the new Europe.
Since President Donald Trump came to power a month ago, the question that Europe has been looming on European politics is how much it should depend on the United States, and his isolationist “America's first” “It's the problem that brought him the vision.
In his post-race statement, Meltz told German voters, “Americans, in any case, Americans in this administration don't really care about the fate of Europe,” he said, “They're saying Europe is the first to be a part of the country.” We're planning on strengthening it.” This allows us to achieve independence from the United States. ”
And he is not just a European leader talking about enacting earthquake change in relations between the US and Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron recently wrote, “Europeans must invest together in better, more, and in their security and defense for today and the future.”
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer said, “We must recognize the new era where we are, rather than desperately sticking to the comforts of the past. So it's time to take responsibility for the continent.”
The leader's comments are evidence that the way they think has changed among European leaders. It is a defense of Europe, which is seeking itself for itself.
To understand where this came from and what it meant, I contacted Professor Zeynep Somer-Topcu at Austin at the University of Texas. The conversations edited for length and clarity can be found below.
What is behind the promotion of a new type of self-sufficiency in Europe?
Last week's comments by President Trump on Ukraine and Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky sparked an explosion in Europe. [Among other things, Trump appeared to back Russia’s vision for the end of the war, and said some unpleasant things about Zelenskyy.] European leaders are very concerned.
They realize that they could be alone in protecting Ukraine, and considering what the Russian threat would be if Ukraine collapses, it must be sacrifices all.
That's why Meltz says Germany needs to lead when it comes to defense, and that it's time for Germany (which doesn't have its own nuclear weapons) to explore nuclear cooperation with France and the UK. Masu. To exchange guaranteed US nuclear protection – up to the Trump administration.
That's the defense, but there's also the economic side. Trump's debate about potential tariffs creates significant economic risks, especially as the European economy is already inadequate.
More inward-looking means that Europe needs to come together and become more economically and defensively independent. And Merz definitely hopes that he and Germany can guide this effort.
Is Vision Merz Paints possible?
There are many moving parts.
The European Union had to come together, and that was a challenge. European Union states were able to mostly agree on issues such as agriculture, fishing, and economic policy. However, when it comes to defense and military, European Union members have been extremely reluctant to establish a common military or defense system over the past decades. Nothing will change unless individual countries actually come together and demand that they increase the integration of the European Union on these issues.
The European Union has so many different member states that offer different benefits. Hungary has a different policy towards Russia, which is completely different from France and Germany. Given the differences, it would be really difficult to unite behind the general EU defence policy at this point.
Another wildcard is where the UK stands in all of this. The UK is currently outside the European Union.
When they were part of the EU, the UK was one of the largest countries in terms of budget and defence spending in the European Union. I don't think we'll see the UK pushing back to regain EU membership, but when it comes to defense and security, it's something that Europe needs, and we see it happen within the framework of the European Union. I don't think it's even happening. , however, there is a close relationship between the UK, France and Germany.
The UK has traditionally been a very close ally of the US, but recently the UK government has been getting a little closer to the European Union and Europe more generally. They want an independent UK-EU security agreement to cover security, defense and foreign policy cooperation, but if the US is inward, it means the US is away from the UK. We realize that there is a high chance that we will do so, so we will cooperate financially. Same thing. And that perspective is widespread. British public opinion is now highly opposed to the US.
Many depend on what happens within Germany and face two major challenges: becoming more independent over this Mertz program.
For one, Meltz's party did not win a full majority in last weekend's election. This means he needs to work with another party to make things happen. It really limits the capabilities of European countries, regardless of what the German leaders say they should.
The second thing that limits them internally is the constitutional amendment that limits Germany's annual structural deficit. This limits the government's ability to respond flexibly to recessions, but also limits its engagement in the types of defensive spending required to become defensively independent.
The problem with Mertz is that Germany needs a two-thirds majority of Parliament for all kinds of constitutional changes, and Mertz's Union could be very far off.
To avoid this, Meltz now suggested trying to change the Constitution. The current Congress, which has been in power since 2021, is expected to continue until late March. He hopes that current lawmakers have the number to make a difference, so when a new parliament comes, Germany can actually spend more on defense.
It appears to say there are many ways that attempts to unite Europe can work. Let's say this effort fails and the EU cannot come together. What happens after that?
I think the glass is half full.
As the threat posed by President Trump becomes even more realistic, the EU is making the most of the way, whether tariffs are entered or Russia wins the war and controls Ukrainian territory. I think I'll find it. All of this changes the dynamics of Europe and forces the nation to overcome these challenges I have talked about.
In times of crisis, alliances can come together very quickly.
What does a world in Europe mean for the rest of the world, whereas it is more interconnected than ever before, but with little relations with the US?
The European Union is on par with the US and China in terms of its economic power. The EU may have a real opportunity to lead, especially in less developed regions, especially as USAID has been stripped of its funds. The EU could emerge from this more powerful thing.
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