Report details emissions reduction pathway and North America's first-mover advantage
ARLINGTON, Va., May 29, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — A new report by environmental consulting firm ICF and the Aluminum Association: The Path to Decarbonization: North American Aluminum Roadmaphighlights potential strategies to significantly reduce carbon emissions in the North American (US and Canada) aluminum industry by the middle of this century. The roadmap provides a theoretical pathway to achieve industry-wide carbon emissions reductions in line with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) net-zero target for 2050.
The report also finds that North America has a significant first-mover advantage in the carbon footprint of aluminum products, which is approximately 50% lower than the global average. This advantage is due to the use of low-carbon primary aluminum, increased recycling, and voluntary emissions reduction efforts over the past few decades. However, achieving such aggressive emissions reduction targets by mid-century will require a society-wide decarbonization effort and tens of billions of dollars of public and private investment.
“Our industry is proud of the important role it has played in the clean energy transition and the progress we've made to reduce carbon emissions over the past few decades,” said Aluminum Association president and CEO Charles Johnson. “The average carbon emissions to produce one pound of aluminum in North America have fallen by more than half since 1991, giving us a significant head start over the rest of the world and an opportunity to lead the way in low-carbon metals production. But we know we need to do much more to reach our net-zero goal by 2050.”
According to the roadmap, achieving the net-zero target requires aluminium production emissions to be reduced by 24% by 2030, 63% by 2040 and 92% by 2050, compared to 2021 emissions baselines. During this period, production is projected to grow by around 80%, driven by increased demand for the metal to support sustainability efforts across sectors.
The roadmap outlines several key pathways to achieving deep emissions reduction targets by 2050.
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Aluminum production technology and efficiency improvements: Developing and introducing new primary aluminium production technologies such as inert anode smelting and chloride processes to remove direct emissions, modifying current alumina production methods and improving energy efficiency at plant level.
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Alternative Fuels and Carbon Capture: Transitioning to new energy sources such as green hydrogen, electrifying furnaces and introducing carbon capture and storage technologies.
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Decarbonizing the grid: Deployment of clean energy technologies to decarbonize the U.S. electric grid, based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) “High Adoption” scenario, enabled by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
In addition to the above pathways, recycling more aluminum more efficiently could dramatically accelerate the industry's emissions reductions. The model includes both a constrained scrap-use scenario (as a baseline) and an optimal scrap-use scenario. The optimal-use scenario reduces CO2e emissions by an additional 160 million tonnes by 2050, on top of the 127 million tonnes of CO2e reduction assumed in the constrained scenario. This total reduction is equivalent to taking more than 68 million cars off the road for one year.
Overall, about one-third of the emissions reductions needed by 2050 could be achieved through improvements in aluminum production techniques, which the industry itself has the most control over. The remaining two-thirds of reductions will need to come from a combination of newly developed affordable manufacturing techniques, the deployment of state and federal research and infrastructure investments, and national policies that support the clean energy transition.
Independent analysts estimate that it will cost approximately $1 trillion across the global primary production value chain (mainly electricity supply and smelters) to achieve global net-zero climate targets by 2050. North American primary aluminum accounts for approximately 6% of global production, and a conservative estimate of approximately $60 billion in public and private investment in the region would be required to achieve global net-zero climate targets in the primary production segment alone.
“This study sends a strong message that decarbonizing the energy sector is a prerequisite for decarbonizing not only the aluminium industry but other heavy industry,” Johnson added. “To achieve these ambitious targets by mid-century will require a society-wide decarbonization effort – the aluminium industry will not be able to do this alone.”
According to the Roadmap, North America has a significant first-mover advantage in reducing emissions compared to the rest of the world. Domestically produced aluminum and aluminum products are approximately half the carbon intensity of aluminum products produced in the rest of the world. And aluminum products produced in China are, on average, 2.5 times more carbon intense than North American aluminum products. Even assuming the global aluminum industry commits to significant emissions reductions, the rest of the world is still eight to ten years away from producing semi-fabricated aluminum at the same carbon intensity as North America.
“Our roadmap makes clear that importing carbon-intensive aluminum from outside North America to meet growing demand will only exacerbate global emissions, destroy jobs and make supply chains less resilient,” Johnson said. “We need to produce more aluminum here.”
To support the transition to low-carbon domestic aluminum production, federal and state policymakers and regulators must:
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surely Availability, abundance and affordability of clean energy Reduce emissions across aluminum production.
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Supporting policy and technology Promoting aluminum recycling For example, improved scrap sorting, closed-loop materials management and recycling incentive programs.
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Enforce A fair international trading system and effective oversight It provides transparency on carbon emissions embedded in international trade flows.
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provide Research and Development Incentives for clean aluminum production technologies in primary aluminum smelting, alumina refining, scrap melting and semi-processing.
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Facilitate Access to capital Enable manufacturers to deploy industrial decarbonization technologies at the factory level.
of The Path to Decarbonization: North American Aluminum Roadmap was developed to help governments, researchers, companies, and other key stakeholders identify and visualize strategic options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the North American aluminum industry. The Roadmap leverages a dynamic, Excel-based tool that lists emissions from North American aluminum manufacturing activities, with a base year of 2021 based on actual market and emissions data. This approach allows the industry to proactively monitor performance over time. To learn more about potential pathways to aluminum decarbonization in North America, visit https://www.aluminum.org/Decarb.
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About the Aluminum Association
The Aluminum Association represents the entire U.S. aluminum production and employment value chain, including companies that make 70% of the aluminum and aluminum products shipped in North America. The Association is a leading voice in the industry, developing global standards, business intelligence, sustainability research and industry expertise for member companies, policymakers and the public. From fuel-efficient vehicles and sustainable packaging to the infrastructure of the future, aluminum helps manufacturers make great products better and great products even better. The industry supports $228 billion in economic activity and nearly 700,000 jobs in the United States. Aluminum companies have invested more than $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the past decade to capture the next generation of growth. For more information, visit https://www.aluminum.org.
CONTACT: Matt Meenan Aluminum Association 703-358-2977 [email protected]
