Nearly two weeks after his release of the “liberation day” tariffs, President Donald Trump has lost a full chunk of support from the American public. According to polls, his chaotic trade policy has beaten his trust in economic management, his economic approval rate is tanking, and his overall popularity continues to slip.
The public's perception that Trump cannot lower prices or slow inflation is at the heart of its negative trajectory. And the expectation that tariffs will hurt the national economy by simply raising prices may only accelerate the decline.
We have more information on how this unpopularity will affect the country's political landscape. Also dragging his party's position in the multi-ethnic coalition of voters that won in 2024? And is that complaint making those voters abandon, especially young and people of color?
Now we have some data that will help us identify the answer. Trump's economic approval and overall rating have declined. They slid 7 points from early March and 6 points each from early February.
However, Republicans have now erased their mostly important democratic benefits. When Kinninipiac University recently asked voters to parties who care more about the “needs and issues of people like you,” Republicans and Democrats were effectively linked.
It's a big break from history. For most of the last 20 years, Democrats have led this question in double digits.
What does this have to do with customs? And is this closure gap the result of what Trump and Republicans are right? Or is it a mess with the Democrats?
The data draws subtle pictures. Trump has warning signs that tariffs may generally exacerbate his party's status, but despite the confusion, he also has hints of resilient trust. Many believe that Trump and the GOP are the right parties to defend the working class. There is also encouragement news for Democrats who are trying to capitalize on the economic dissatisfaction of the people.
Below are three ways to view this data: Together, they show the complexity of this moment.
Approach 1: Resilient Trust in Trump
The campaign, and how their winners ran their races, is important. Trump has cast himself for much of the 2024 cycle as a change candidate who can control inflation, boost economic growth and specifically bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. The pledge suggested that many post-election voters surveys were elected to him.
And it seems that a considerable number of Americans who voted for Trump either trust him to try and make it work, or are trying to give him the bounty of doubt.
The overwhelming majority of Republicans still approve Trump (86%), but four in 10 independents continue to support the performance of their duties. That's not too far from the level of support Trump got in November (he split the independent vote equally with Kamala Harris). The slight difference between Republicans and independent support from November to today suggests that dramatic asylum has not yet happened.
At the same time, the full impact of his tariffs and trade policy has not yet been felt. As much as stock market performance has been tumultuous over the past few weeks, it is not the biggest public concern at this point. 17% of respondents said the Dow's performance was the highest economic problem.
And most importantly, there is a set of opinions on the effects of tariffs. In the short term, Quinnipiac surveys overwhelmingly believe that Trump's tariffs will have a negative impact on the national economy.
However, in the long run, opinions are divided more evenly on the impact of tariffs. 41% of voters believe they will support the economy compared to 53% who think they will hurt them.
Comparing how Republicans and independents feel about short-term and long-term tariffs suggests that a considerable number of voters are buying tariff cases from Trump and his allies.
Republicans, for example, are divided roughly evenly on whether tariffs are useful or hurt in the short term. But they do think it will be overwhelmingly useful in the long run. Similar dynamics work together with independents. The share (35%) that tariffs are useful in the long term is almost twice that (19%) that you think will support in the short term.
Still, these opinions could change dramatically if the economic fallout of the total trade war with China, sunk stocks and bewildering bond markets finally unfolds.
Approach 2: Trump's unique responsibility is different from GOP brands
But what does “Trump tariffs” mean for the rest of the Republican party?
Polls suggest that the public may be distinguishing between Trump and his party. That is, regardless of Trump's presence, he looks more aggressively at Republican brands, while denounces the president for economic situations and unpopular policy decisions.
One side effect of Trump's campaign and the 2024 victory was to help solidify the relationship between Republicans and the working class, and to retain the overwhelming support of voters who have not had a college education since 2016.
A Quinnipiac poll asks about Republican brands. Traditionally, questions have been asked to represent which parties benefit from populists, everyday civic support, that is, those who have the support of the vast majority of American working class.
CNN's Harry Enten, who first flagged this shift in sentiment, contextualizes this through the collapse of Democrats and Republicans' support margins in voting from voters with university degrees. Since 2017, Democrats' support among non-university-educated voters has been reversed. They went from a 7-point advantage over the GOP to a 9-point deficit. Meanwhile, their support among college-educated voters remains at a stable 18-point edge.
And despite Trump's overall unpopularity and declining support for various policy issues, the parties are essentially tied to each other in general Congress votes. According to an analysis by Enten, Congressional Democrats currently hold a one-point advantage in the national voting compared to the tied environment in November 2024, and at this point in 2017 he has a seven-point advantage.
Trump's unpopularity may continue to collapse to the Congressional and national level, but for now it appears that voters are thinking differently about Trump and the two major political parties.
Approach 3: Democrats shook the ball
These Republican improvements suggest democratic failure, particularly in branding with these voters. Digging into the vote brings back other notable dynamics. The ties of those who view their interests as a party better representing their interests are actually three-way splits. 33% of voters say they are GOP, 33% say they are Democrats, and 31% say neither party answered. That 31% are made up of primarily dissatisfied independents (46% of independents feel that neither party represents them).
But there is a significant share of self-identified Democrats who feel that way. Perhaps because the party base feels disillusioned and angry with its party leaders because it doesn't resist or stand up against Trump and the GOP.
What contributes to this democratic dissatisfaction is the party's cluttered response to Trump's tariffs and chaotic development week. The elected Democrats found themselves scrambled because they tried to come up with a unified anti-meth. Some criticised Trump for imposing tariffs on some approved tariffs, allies, while others criticised Republicans for causing stock market disruption.
The main thing in this shard was the fact that the party was still trying to find ways to regain the mantle of fighting for the working class, how to respond to Trump's pitch on manufacturing and protectionism, and how to dismiss the neoliberal free trade identity since the 1990s.
So Trump has crashed his popularity and yet there's nothing many Democrats are doing to capitalize on that spiral while potentially defeating Republicans ahead of the mid-term.
There are still more in the future
When Democrats understand how and what to say to ultimately exploit Trump's spiral, they have some breathing chambers. Their gambling to defeat Trump and the GOP seems to be rewarding. Trump has recorded even more negative marks on the economy, recording trade weekly. The latest CBS/YouGov tracking polls found Trump's approval reached a new low for his second term. And we believe that the economy is declining, with an increase of 11 points since November 2024.
So the Democrats have a reason for hope. The popularity of the president's slide suggests that his Biden-era profits may be short-lived among economically focused voters.
Another high-quality poll from Echelon Insights found signs that Congressional Democrats are making progress on other economic issues. Republicans have traditionally enjoyed the massive benefits of voters asking what party they can trust in “work and economy” or “inflation and cost of living.” Now, the GOP and the Democrats are essentially linked.
