America's fragile parenting system relies heavily on migrant workers. Donald Trump's crackdown on immigrants could cripple that.
Since 2011, federal guidance has advised immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) agents against enforcement in “sensitive locations” such as hospitals, churches, schools and daycare centers. On his first day back in the office, Trump removed these long-standing protections and marked a major change from his first term as president. Currently – Ice officials have been charged with increasing daily arrests from hundreds to over 1,500, while top immigration agents have been demoted for not banishing people quickly enough – day care centers are standing as direct targets.
Immigration crackdowns threaten to promote an industry where foreign-born staff makes up a fifth of the workforce nationwide. A survey led by New American Economy estimates that more than 200,000 undocumented immigrants work in child care and daycare services. New, more stringent enforcement comes at particularly unstable times as major employers phase out remote work policies and leave parents with intense scrambling for childcare.
Childcare programs already have employee turnover rates of 65% higher than average. Salaries help explain why: As of 2023, the median hourly wage for full-time annual childcare workers was only $14.60, ranked the sector as the 10th lowest paying occupation out of nearly 750 jobs in the economy, according to one analysis. Trump's crackdown could make everything worse.
Jessica Brown, an economist at the University of South Carolina, has been studying how early immigration enforcement seizures affected the childcare market. Her analysis of the Secure Communities program, which ran nationwide from 2008 to 2014, found that immigration enforcement disrupted female-dominated parenting, even when it targeted men. The program reduced the overall supply of childcare workers and centres and reduced enrolment.
Native-born workers didn't fill the gap when migrants left the childcare industry despite claiming that immigrants were taking jobs from born Americans. Instead, the number of native-born childcare workers also fell – as costs increased and the centre was closed.
Today's situation could prove even more destructive.
“The current attacks represent a much more pronounced threat to deporting women,” Brown said. “The long-term effect depends on whether this becomes a new normal or not. More importantly, it is about perception. Even if raids are reduced, when fear is established in immigrant communities, it can have a frightening effect.” Among the people most vulnerable to such fears are the children themselves.
Cascade effect of immigration enforcement
These chilling effects are not theoretical. The first Trump terminology provides insight into the impact these attacks have on both children and child care providers. In 2017, the Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP), a national anti-poor organization, launched a multi-stage study into how Trump's immigration policy under the age of eight affects children under the age of eight.
Early educators reported an increase in new behaviors, aggression, separation anxiety, and withdrawal, which have been described as different from those of children in the past few years. One Georgia kindergarten director described the 5-year-old, who had bitten his fingertips until he bleed, because his anxiety was so bad.
The study found a widespread decline in daycare attendance and enrollment as families isolated themselves. The program reported that parents leave young children with older siblings and grandparents rather than formal care, minimizing time outside the home to avoid law enforcement encounters. These changes have threatened the financial viability of centres on which the entire neighborhood depends, as registrations are often linked to attendance, as reduced cuts in already thin margins and state subsidies.
The crisis has expanded beyond the direct provisions of childcare. Healthcare providers and parents reported an increase in reluctance to access public benefits such as health insurance and nutritional assistance due to concerns that Medicaid or SNAP information could be shared with immigration officers.
Infantly childhood staff themselves reported intense anxiety that an increase in cases of racism and xenophobia affects the families they serve, and in some cases, their own personal effects. Many providers described the emotional burden of being asked by parents to become the emergency guardian of their children in case they are deported.
A third of young children in the United States live with at least one parent who speaks a language other than English at home, and these children achieve better academic outcomes with dual language parenting programs.
Wendy Cervantes, director of immigration and immigrant families at the clasp who co-led the study, told VOX that the difficulty of finding a childcare provider with the right skills to educate dual language children is often overlooked. “Not many people are trained and also capable bilingual,” she said.
How policymakers, advocates and childcare directors are trying to protect families and staff
During the first Trump administration, many parenting providers didn't even know that the center was protected under federal guidance on “delicate places.” However, these same advocates are now working to help providers understand that guidance is no longer valid and they have constitutional rights.
“They still have the rights under the fourth amendment that limits the extent to which ice can enter,” Cervantes said. Immigration agents must raid a signed judicial warrant with the name and address of a particular person, as well as a private space. To help providers navigate these changes, Clasp coordinates resources and plans a nationwide webinar for the childcare program at the end of February.
While political crusades against immigration may score political points, on the ground, they set up a chain reaction that can cascade the entire economy.
Many childcare centers are also developing new protocols that work in this environment. Some have been developing new systems to remove outdoor signs to avoid ice caution and to inform parents of warnings. Others are rethinking their data collection policies to limit questions asked about family immigration status.
“There's a difference in finding something and documenting it,” said Athenas Brola Estrada, an attorney at the Amica Immigration Rights Centre. She highlighted the importance of child care centers planning ahead so that staff can know what they need to do if ice enforcement comes.
“What's different about childcare is the fear factor, and can hurt a lot more for small children,” she said. “Providers also need to know who they will call if Mom and Dad don't come home, so that their children will avoid taking state custody.”
Some states want to create new protections through law. In California, the bill would make it difficult for ice agents to enter schools and child-rearing centers. And even if the agents meet the entry requirements, they will be able to enter an area that is not yet child-free.
In Congress, Democrats Adriano Espirat and Senator Richard Blumenthal recently reintroduced the bill to codify federal guidance for “delicate places.” But this law is a long shot. Unable to pass in 2017, the political landscape today is changing, and even many Democrats are helping to carry out strict immigration enforcement amid growing concerns about border security. Earlier this year, Congress passed the Laken Riley Act, demanding forced detention of immigrants accused of theft and related crimes.
As politicians wage wars against immigrants in the name of protecting American jobs, their policies threaten to unravel the system that preserves millions of Americans in the workforce, especially mothers. In classrooms across the country, children form bonds with care workers who help shape their early years, while immigrant teachers create the bilingual, multicultural space that defines modern American childhoods. While political crusades against immigration may earn political points, on the ground, it sets up a chain reaction that allows for the loss of productive employees at the most formative age without supportive care from parents forced to cut work hours, parents forced to lose productive employees.
This work was supported by grants from the Bainum Family Foundation. Vox Media had full discretion over the content of this report.
