President Donald Trump's decision to halt US military aid to Ukraine is one of the most dramatic changes in US foreign policy in recent years. Not only has the US effectively changed aspects in the ongoing war, it appears to be aside decades of alignment with Europe against Russian attacks, effectively taking Russian side in a larger geopolitical struggle.
For some, Trump's move is no surprise. From the time he defended the Russian human rights record, until the US sent the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin to his own intelligence reporting agency, his rhetoric has given him enough ammunition to portray him as a “puppet show” of Russian leaders over the years.
However, despite his highly investigated interference in Russia's 2016 election, despite frequent expressions of love for Putin, Trump's actual policies during Trump's first term were not particularly “pro-Russian.” After Trump first took office in 2017, there was literal champagne toast on the floor of Russian parliament, celebrating what was expected to be a new golden age of US-Russia relations. However, the good feelings were short-lived.
Despite what Trump officials may have promised to the Kremlin, Trump did not lift any significant sanctions against Russia, and in fact applied dozens of new sanctions.
The Trump administration approved the sale of Javelin anti-tank weapons in 2019 Ukraine after the Obama administration declined. The effectiveness of these weapons against Russian armored vehicles after the full-scale invasion in 2022 gave them a theological status in Ukraine. Trump's more Hawkish officials and members of Congress were often able to take on Russian policies despite the president's own preferences.
By the time of the 2020 election, the consensus in Moscow was that even if Trump was in the White House, the relationship didn't make much of a difference, and that relationship continued to be a bad thing. This time, Russian leaders responded more cautiously to Trump's reelection, saying the Foreign Ministry didn't expect the dominant bipartisan anti-Russian consensus in Washington to change that.
But that's before events in the past few weeks, and we've seen the US resume high-level direct consultations with Russia (effectively ending the diplomatic cold shoulder the country has received from the West since 2022). Trump reiterates the Kremlin's story that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that launched the war, and that Ukrainian President Voldy Meezelensky was an unelected “dictator.” And aired Zelensky's humiliation by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in his oval office on Friday.
In addition to stopping military aid to Ukraine, the White House reportedly asked the State and Treasury ministries to prepare a list of sanctions against Russian groups and individuals that could be lifted in the coming days. Defense Secretary Pete Hegses has gone to the point of instructing the US Cyber Command to halt all plans against Russia, including offensive cyber operations.
In short, “pro-Russia” is here now, with Trump's foreign policy that many people in both countries had anticipated, but never realized during the first period. But, although not so clear, Russia itself creates the turn of this event.
There is no reason to delve into plots or “game theory” to explain Trump's actions. Trump probably believes that support for Ukraine is a bad investment for the United States and that he truly believes that praise for the importance of the alliance of foreign policy facilities has allowed other countries to ride freely in American military power.
It is also perhaps true that, as analysts and founder of the Eurasian Group, Ian Bremer writes, the president is often political.
Sasha de Vogel, a political scientist and Russian expert at the University of North Carolina, said: “It's incredibly strange to see the US leaders celebrate Putin and make a decision to play it in the hands of Russia. I hope Russia is trying to make the most profitable it can.”
Supporters of Trump's foreign policy may disagree with whether new detainees with Russia are part of the overall removal of US military power or a shift towards dealing with what is considered a more serious threat from China, perhaps, should strip Moscow from its alliance with Beijing in a sort of reverse Nixon maneuver.
In any case, it rarely prevents Trump from accepting Putin as much as he did this time.
Since Trump's first term, pro-Russia and anti-Frenia sentiment has spread within Trump's foundations.
Unlike his first time, his administration has officials who share views on Russia (such as Vance), as well as opinions that have evolved to coincide with the president, such as Secretary Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz.
In the wake of Zelenskyy's dressdown, some of the GOP's most solid Russian Hawks in Congress either fully support the president or remain quiet.
After Trump's election, some Ukrainians and some Europeans may be shunning some of the cautious approaches to military aid from the Biden administration, pointing to Trump's first term record as evidence that they would not completely reverse the course on US support for Ukraine. To be fair, some of Trump's own statements gave him reason to believe this.
But now it appears that continental leaders have reached conclusions over the first Soviet Union, the 80-year-old alliance between the United States and Europe. During his first term, Trump threatened to pull the United States out of NATO completely. This time it's completely possible if he might do something good with that threat.
Despite leaders like the ancestors of British Kiel's ancestors claim that the US is “not an unreliable ally,” the Western head of state is likely treated the same as Zelenkie received in the White House, and it is clear that Ukraine will continue to fight in the future will be in Europe.
But the country itself may have the most difficult time to come up with how to respond to the pro-Russian tilt of the US is Russia itself.
Will Russia win?
For now, Russian leaders seem almost surprised at the changes in good fortune in Washington.
“If I told me three months ago these were the words of the US president, I would have laughed out loud,” former president and current social media troll-in-chief Dmitry Medvedev tweeted following Zelenskyy's account of Trump as a “dictator.” Following the oval office meeting, Medvedev followed up as follows: The abolished pig finally received a firm slap in the face. ”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state television in slightly calmer words: This is pretty much in line with our vision. ”
A poll released on Friday by the Russian Levada Centre shows that public support for the war is currently at 80%, the highest level since March 2022.
“This is incredibly good news for Putin,” De Vogel said. While showing no signs of interest in stopping the war, the Russian president was facing at least some headwinds due to the casualties, difficulties in recruiting, and an overheated economy. This could make him more likely to engage in serious negotiations with the US, Europe, or someone else to actually end the war, rather than more. “If Putin can still be in his advantage, there's no reason to rush to negotiate a ceasefire.”
While Russia is expected to make the most of the present moment, experts say it is unlikely to view the moment as a full-fledged geopolitical reorganization.
“They are very suspicious,” Andrei Seldatov, a UK-based Russian journalist and security analyst, told Vox. “To be honest, they don't believe in a new arrangement for long-lasting peace or European security. Tactically, they will take what they can, but they believe they are in the struggle with the West for centuries, and Trump won't try to change that.”
In a recent column, Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy intellectual who was probably distributed to the major Russian government, compared the present moment to the Yalta Conference.
Can Trump and Putin follow in the footsteps of Franklin Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin? Mostly Lukanov wrote. “Trump's approach to deal production prioritizes the benefits of financial benefits and circumstances over comprehensive, long-term solutions. His understanding of the contract is transaction, and there is a lack of the vision necessary for a treaty on Yalta's size.”
Furthermore, he writes, “The concept of “the concept of”.World Order“as understood in Western terms, it is lost in relation to future agreements,” are limited, short-term and likely to be traded.
Moreover, Russian leaders may feel that they have seen this film before. There's something like the tradition of an American president taking office, hoping for a better relationship with Putin. In 2001, President George W. Bush met the newly minted (and still quite unknown) Russian leader, claiming that he had gained a “sense of his soul” looking at his eyes, and felt he could trust.
Barack Obama had the famous “reset” (with props), an attempt to find an area of common interest and cooperation. Of course, Trump had his own frustrating attempt to find a common basis with Putin in his first term. Joe Biden defeated the trend in the early weeks of his presidency by calling Putin a “killer,” but he was able to negotiate a major arms management agreement with Putin before relations with Ukraine fell apart.
This second Trump administration's pro-Russian tilt is much more dramatic than any of these overtures, but appears to be less thoughtful. Trump's initially rather cautious approach to Ukraine seemed to convert overnight after a call with Putin.
As for Putin, you may need to see more before he believes it.
