This home on Stone Meadow Lane is one of 42 properties for sale in Montecito (listed by Amanda Lee of The Agency)
Here's a breakdown of the state of the Montecito, Santa Barbara, and Santa Ynez Valley housing markets and my predictions for 2024. Let's look at the numbers.
Southern Santa Barbara County Statistics
In southern Santa Barbara County (from Goleta to Carpinteria), 1,011 homes and condos were sold in 2023. This is down from 2022, when there were 1,382 total units, and significantly down from 2022, when there were 2,107 total homes and condos sold. Single-family home sales are down 28% from 2022. In 2023, 735 homes were sold; in 2022, 1,022 homes were sold; and in 2021, 1,542 homes were sold.
Although sales numbers were sluggish, prices remained stable. By year's end, the median home sale price in southern Santa Barbara County reached $2.1 million. This compares to $2.2 million in 2022 and $1.9 million in 2021. The median sales price for condominiums increased significantly, exceeding $1 million and settling at $1.2 million. . This compares to $960,000 in 2022 and $830,000 in 2021. Condominium sales are down 22% from 2022. There were 276 condos sold in 2023 and 356 condos sold in 2022. Sales prices range from a $515,000 1/1 in Goleta to a $6.3 million condo in Bonnymead, a 3/3 in Montecito Shores.
November and December were very slow months in the local market. In November, he had 46 homes sold, and the same number in December, the slowest two months of the year. For perspective, in a typical year, he expects to close between 80 and 120 stores each month.
Montecito
Montecito's sales volume decreased significantly compared to the previous year. 164 homes and condos were sold, which coincidentally was exactly the same number he sold in 2018, when the 1/9 debris flow occurred. In 2022, he had 203 cases. Sales ranged from his $1.3 million condo on Coast Village Road to his $22 million eight-acre estate with a pool and guest house on San Ysidro Road. That same property was flipped five months later and listed for $46 million. It was removed from the market after 30 days.
Sales of luxury goods in Montecito appear to be stable. In 2023, there were 27 homes sold for more than $10 million, compared to 31 in 2022 and 46 in 2021 at the market's peak.
Average and median home prices are on par with last year, at $6.7 million and $5.1 million, respectively, compared to $6.7 million and $4.7 million in 2022.
January brought new momentum to Montecito. 10 properties closed and 12 new properties listed. Currently, he has 42 homes and condos on the market in Montecito, 10 of which are in escrow.
santa ynez valley
In the Santa Ynez Valley, which includes Santa Ynez, Solvang, Los Olivos, Ballard and Buellton, 139 homes closed in 2023, compared to 195 in 2022. Sales range from a 2/1 home in Solvang for $725,000 to a 20-acre ranch. It sold in Solvang for $15 million, the highest sale of the year in the Valley.
The average sale price in the Valley was just over $2 million, and the median sale price was $1.5 million. This number remains roughly the same as in 2022. Prices have stabilized after surging 30% in 2022. On average, homes in the Valley sell for 95% of list price.
The average days on market in the Santa Ynez Valley was 62 days, compared to 53 days in 2022 and 55 days in 2021. Inventory shortages continue to plague the Valley, which is extremely acute due to the high interest rates we have experienced throughout the period. last year. Although the year was slow overall, we saw many local buyers transacting in the Valley, as well as buyers setting prices in Santa Barbara and Goleta. Typically, we also have out-of-town buyers seeking the peace and tranquility of the Valley for both their primary and secondary homes.
Sales in the condominium sector declined, with only 20 units sold throughout the year, compared to 26 units in 2022 and a whopping 45 units in 2021. This decrease was due to the aforementioned inventory shortage. Currently, five of his condos are for sale across the Valley.
All told, there are currently 59 homes, condos, and PUDs for sale in the Valley. Of these, 17 were reduced in price. This is indicative of the “normalization” we have seen with interest rates, holidays, and inventory shortages. It's refreshing to see 1-3 homes currently for sale in each of the Valley's most popular neighborhoods, including Skyt Mesa and Sunrise Village in Solvang and Sycamore Ranch and Meadow Ridge in Buellton is.
goleta
183 homes/PUDs were sold in Goleta in 2023. This is down more than 40% from an average year, when Goleta is expected to sell about 350 homes.
The homes sold ranged in price from a 1/1 PUD near Goleta Valley Cottage Hospital to an $8 million 22-acre ranch in the foothills of Goleta Mountain that my team sold in October. To this was added a small number of sales between $4 million and $5 million, so the average sale price in Goleta rose to $1.7 million and the median price was $1.5 million. . This is consistent with 2022, when sales prices were about the same.
Just five years ago, the average sales price for a single-family home in Goleta was $1,049,000, and the median sales price was $923,000.
Goleta has 85 condo sales annually, with prices ranging from $515,000 for 1/1 in Encina Royale to $2.2 million for 3/3 in Tree Farm. In a normal year, about 200 condos are expected to be sold in Goleta, so that number is significantly lower.
Goleta tends to attract entry-level buyers in most areas, those who are more likely to borrow money, so rising interest rates in 2022 and 2023 will have a severe impact on sales numbers in the area. I did.
There are currently 42 homes, PUDs and condos for sale in Goleta, with another 25 in escrow.
santa barbara
Similar to other regions, the number of Santa Barbara home and condo sales decreased from 2022, with 492 units sold in 2023, compared to 626 units in 2022. Before the pandemic, annual home and condo sales in Santa Barbara hovered around 800 units.
Average and median prices both fell. The average sales price for a single-family home was $2.375 million in 2023, compared to $2.5 million in 2022. Median sales price decreased by $2.185 million in 2022 to $2.08 million in 2023.
We sold one of the most gorgeous renovations I've ever seen on Holly Road in the hills above Santa Barbara for $5,525,000 (Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties) Calcagno & Hamilton on the list)
The variety of homes and condos for sale in Santa Barbara was vast. The least expensive property sold was a one-bedroom, one-bathroom condo on Richland Drive for $547,000. The most expensive home sold in Santa Barbara was an ocean-view property on Shoreline Drive with five bedrooms and seven bathrooms that closed for $16.2 million after 184 days on the market. did. Not surprisingly, the highest priced properties for sale in Santa Barbara are oceanfront properties on the bluffs along the beach, or ocean view homes in the Santa Barbara foothills. We also saw some big sales in the Upper East, Riviera, and Mission Canyon.
My predictions for 2024
In 2024, we expect inventory to increase, sales to increase, and activity in the local market to increase. This is good. Interest rates are expected to fall below 6% by the end of 2024, which could attract more buyers to the market and push prices higher. However, lower interest rates will also attract more sellers to the market, and we expect inventory to increase across all sectors. In the past two weeks alone, we've already seen a noticeable increase in new listings, buyer activity, open house attendance, and pending listings.
As always, buyers can set themselves up for success by getting pre-approved with a local lender and acting quickly once they find the home they want. Sellers need to be realistic when pricing their homes. Base your prices on comparable sales and keep in mind that the true peak of the market is his May 2021. Strategy is everything in this sensitive market, and you may need to price at or slightly below market value. We give you the best chance of getting the best price for your home.
