Singapore/Chicago: After a strong El Niño, the world's weather is poised to transition to La Niña in the second half of 2024. This pattern typically results in higher rainfall in Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, and drier weather in grain and oilseed producing regions. meteorologists and agricultural analysts in the Americas said.
Meteorologists said it was too early to predict its strength and the impact it would have on crops, but they said a transition to a milder version of La Niña, which cools surface waters off South America's tropical west coast, was imminent.
“The majority of weather models are showing a weak La Niña event in the second half or last quarter of the year. Probably one in 25 weather models is showing a strong La Niña event,” said US meteorologist Chris.・Mr. Hyde said. -Based Maxar.
Last year's El Niño, the third consecutive year of La Niña, brought hot, dry weather in Asia and heavy rains in parts of the Americas, boosting agricultural production prospects in Argentina and the southern plains of the United States.
India, the world's largest rice supplier, restricted exports of the staple rice due to the monsoon recession, and Australia, the second largest exporter, suffered a blow to its wheat production. Palm oil plantations and rice farms in Southeast Asia received less than normal rainfall.
There is a possibility that the situation will reverse due to the La Niña phenomenon.
Ole Howe, director of advisory services at Sydney agricultural brokerage firm Icon Commodities, said: “If La Niña is clearly very good for Australian crops, it depends on when it rains and when it doesn't. ” he said.
“It needs to rain before planting or rain regularly during the growing season to ensure the soil has enough moisture.”
Analysts said the rains could boost yields in Southeast Asian countries that produce rice and palm oil, while a normal monsoon in India could boost production and farm income. Ta.
“While southern India may remain a little dry, much of the country, especially central and northern India, will see slightly above normal rainfall,” Maxar's Hyde said.
US climatologists predict La Niña to arrive in late summer or early fall
“Once we enter the growing season, precipitation across the Corn Belt is primarily driven by thunderstorms,” said Iowa State Climatologist Justin Glisan. “A La Niña event in late September or early October would be advantageous.”
A La Niña event from July to September could bring about a dry fall in the Corn Belt, leading to earlier harvests and benefits for U.S. farmers, but lowering river levels in the Midwest and disrupting barge movements. grazing land may be reduced.
“In some cases, we can expect the opposite of El Niño,” said Mark Brussberg, chief meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center will release its monthly weather forecast for the Northern Hemisphere on Thursday, and the Japan Meteorological Agency's El Niño/La Niña forecast will be released on Friday.
