The Red Sea is currently at risk of one of the worst oil spills in history.

A tanker loaded with about one million barrels of crude oil has been stuck and on fire in the Red Sea since being attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels three weeks ago. Music Video The Sounion is still intact, but that may not be the case for long. If it sinks, it could lead to one of the largest oil spills in history, nearly four times larger than the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster. It would have devastating environmental and economic consequences for a region already plagued by war, putting the livelihoods and safe drinking water of millions of people at risk. Work to salvage the ship will begin immediately, but working in a conflict zone is risky and success is not guaranteed.

“This is a disaster waiting to happen, and I don’t think all involved fully understand the challenges and the impacts that will come if they aren’t resolved,” Ian Larby, CEO of maritime security firm Consilium, told Vox. “We’re facing a generational problem that’s bigger than any oil spill we’ve ever seen.”

The Greek-flagged tanker Sounion, transporting crude oil from Iraq to Greece, was attacked on August 21 by Yemen’s Houthi rebels using small arms fire, projectiles and unmanned surface vessels. The Houthis, who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea since the start of Israel’s Gaza war, claim they attacked the ship because its owner, Greek company Delta Tankers, has “links” to Israel and owns other ships that have called at Israeli ports. Two other ships owned by Delta Tankers were also attacked in August.

The ship’s crew of 23 Filipinos and two Russians, and four civilian security guards were rescued by a French destroyer the day after the attack, but the Sounion itself was stranded and is now anchored between the coasts of Eritrea and Yemen. On August 27, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters that initial attempts to salvage the ship had been abandoned after salvage workers “received warnings from the Houthis to leave.”

On August 29, the Houthis released a video of them detonating explosives on the ship’s deck. Shortly after, Iran, the Houthis’ main international backer, announced it would allow the group to salvage the vessel. Mohammed al-Houthi, a senior Houthi official, said the salvage would be allowed to prevent environmental damage, but that the United States and Britain would be responsible for any oil spilled in support of Israel.

The situation appeared to be heading toward resolution when a tugboat operation escorted by European naval vessels was launched in early September to free the Sounion. But on September 3, Operation Aspides, the EU naval operation in the region, said in a statement that “the private company in charge of the salvage operation has concluded that the conditions for a salvage operation are not yet in place and that it is not safe to proceed. Alternative solutions are currently being considered by the private company.”

In a statement provided to Vox, the tanker’s owner, Delta Tankers, said, “We are doing all we can to move the vessel (and its cargo). For security reasons, we are not in a position to comment further.” The EU’s Operation Aspides did not respond to a request for comment. At this time, the U.S. military does not appear to be involved in efforts to salvage the ship, with Deputy Spokesperson Sabrina Singh saying at a September 5 press conference, “The U.S. Navy is standing by to assist, but we are informed that at this time this is being carried out by civilian means.”

Trade publication Maritime Executive reports that Greece, the ship’s flag state, is discussing options with Saudi Arabia, including towing the vessel to a Saudi port or trying to transfer the oil onto another vessel before it sinks. Reuters reported on September 12 that a new salvage operation would begin soon. But there’s no guarantee the Houthis won’t launch another attack, and experts say companies specializing in such operations are not used to working in the middle of a war zone.

“Even though the Houthis have allowed the ship to be towed, they are still attacking other ships around,” Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemeni security analyst at consultancy Navanti Group, told Vox. “Insurance companies are worried about the situation, salvage companies are worried about the situation. There is no trust between the international community and the Houthis.”

With the ship still burning, there may not be much time left — like nearly all tankers built since the Exxon Valdez disaster, the Sounion is double-hulled and doesn’t leak easily, and its oil tanks appear to still be intact — but it’s probably only a matter of time, depending on the extent of the damage already done, the amount of oxygen its oil cargo has been exposed to, and the severity of the fire.

“We don’t know how much longer the ship will last. If the fire isn’t put out it will eventually sink,” Larby said.

A spill of the Sounion’s cargo could be one of the world’s worst environmental disasters. Julien Juraissati, Greenpeace’s Middle East and North Africa program director, told Vox that because the Red Sea is a mostly enclosed body of water, with the Suez Canal to the north and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the south, there isn’t as much circulation or dilution as in the open ocean, making it easier for oil to remain there.

“You can’t clean up an oil spill,” Geraisati said. “You can contain and mitigate it, but the effects and scars will be there for decades.” In an area where fighting is ongoing, the challenges of such a task will be exponentially greater.

“The Red Sea is truly a natural treasure,” says Jeraissati, “and is especially valuable because it contains some of the coral species most resilient to climate change and bleaching, potentially providing solutions for corals around the world.”

And the impacts would not be limited to underwater: A major oil spill could devastate the region’s fishing industry, a vital component of the economies on both sides of the ocean. (Before civil war erupted in 2015, fish was Yemen’s second-largest export after oil and gas.) An oil spill could also cut off access to ports for badly needed humanitarian aid for impoverished Yemen.

It could also cause further disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which has already been reduced by nearly two-thirds due to Houthi attacks, raising shipping costs and sending further ripple effects throughout global supply chains.

Many when A spill is also possible. Currently, the Red Sea’s surface currents flow primarily south towards the Indian Ocean. In October, that will change course and begin to flow north towards Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A major concern is that an oil spill could contaminate coastal desalination plants that tens of millions of people in Red Sea countries rely on for fresh water.

The cruel irony of this situation is that the Red Sea region only recently escaped a similar disaster. The FSO Safer, a 1970s-era tanker converted by the Yemeni government into an offshore oil platform, lies moored off the coast of the central Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah but is corroding rapidly due to lack of maintenance. Its holds more than a million barrels of oil, roughly the same amount as the Sounion.

Around 2021, it became clear that the ship was at risk of sinking or exploding. Risk assessments at the time estimated that it could affect the livelihoods of up to 1.6 million people, disrupt 50% of Yemen’s fishing industry, and cost more than $20 billion to clean up alone.

After years of negotiations with the Houthis, a UN-led operation was finally organized to transfer the oil from the ship. The operation was completed in August 2023, almost a year before the Sounio crisis began. This time, the international community had much less time to act.

Hopefully, there is still time for the region’s private sector and military to organize rescue operations, and for the Houthis to give their permission, before the worst happens. But even if Sounion itself does not cause a catastrophe, it is merely a reminder of the cascading risks posed by Gaza’s nearly year-long conflict. As Sounion continued to burn, two more oil tankers were attacked by the Houthis in early September, but were not neutralized.

Then there’s the Rubi Maa, the first ship to sink in a Houthi attack, in March. The Rubi Maa had only a fraction of the load of the Sounion, but left an 18-mile oil slick in the Red Sea. An even bigger concern is the 22,000 tons of fertilizer still in its holds that, if released into the ocean, could cause massive algal blooms that could devastate local species and create oxygen-free “dead zones.” Experts believe the cargo will remain in the Rubi Maa’s holds for years, but not forever, and the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, is appealing for funding to clean it up.

For Greenpeace’s Geraisati, the crisis is a reminder that even in the best of times, the global economy “relies on big ships sailing around the world carrying highly toxic materials. This is a ticking time bomb.”

It is also a reminder that the longer conflict in the Middle East rages, the greater and more unpredictable the risks become.