In several battleground states, 2024 election polls are virtually even. Just a few factors can affect the outcome, such as the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot.
Third-party candidates tend to receive less support. Without a major political party behind them, every step of the electoral process becomes clearly more difficult: building name recognition, gaining support, participating in voting and debate forums, and fundraising. .
But third-party candidates don't need much help to disrupt the race. Over the past two election cycles, the average number of votes that determined the outcome in seven battleground states was less than 125,000. For example, in Wisconsin, Trump won by 22,748 votes in 2016 and Biden won by 20,682 votes in 2020, with an average margin of victory of less than 21,715 votes. And while it's unlikely that a single third-party candidate alone would pass that threshold, there are some states where the total number of votes for all third-party candidates is well above that threshold.
Nicole Narea
Kyle Kondyk, editor-in-chief of Sabbat's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said this year's third-party vote share is likely to be closer to 2020 (about 2%) than in 2020. 2016 (approximately 6 percent). This is partly because an unusually high percentage of Americans were dissatisfied with their presidential choices in 2016, and with Harris entering the race to replace President Joe Biden this year, It appears that most of them have candidates they can support.
Still, Kondik said, “It's possible, although unlikely, that the total third-party share will be larger than the difference between Trump and Harris in one or more states.”
That means third-party voters, who are notoriously unpredictable and difficult to persuade, could play a decisive role in a close election, swinging the election in either Trump's or Harris' direction.
Who are the third-party candidates on the ballot?
There are some major third-party candidates you should be aware of. None of them are very popular, but the top four combined have an approval rating of about 3% nationwide. (Notably, most polling averages and models show the difference between Harris and Trump within 2 percentage points).
The leading third-party candidate on the ballot in this year's battleground states is Jill Stein of the Green Party, a progressive party that attracted Democratic-leaning voters in the past two presidential elections.
Stein is on the ballot in every battleground state except Nevada, where a Muslim-American group called Abandon Harris is backing her. The vice president helped fuel Biden's 2020 victory in the state and is struggling among Arab American voters who oppose the Biden administration's approach to the Gaza war.
Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each claim support of about 1% nationally, according to a recent New York Times poll. That's less than Stein last ran for president in 2016.
Still, it could be enough to overturn the results in the same states where she has historically won large numbers of voters. In 2016, she won more votes in the “blue wall” states of Michigan and Wisconsin than Trump won in those states.
Another potential wildcard in these states is independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign in August and endorsed former President Donald Trump.
He was once seen as a potential spoiler for both Trump and President Joe Biden, given his embrace of anti-establishment views held by certain segments of the Republican Party and his status as a member of the Democratic Kennedy dynasty. Ta. Mr. Kennedy had around 10% support nationally for much of 2024, and even higher in polls in some battleground states. But in August, after Harris won the Democratic nomination, her approval rating plummeted to less than 5%, and many Democrats saw her as the only alternative to Biden. This suggests that he did not put any particular effort into his candidacy.
Now he is even more likely to become a spoiler for Trump. According to the New York Times, recent polls show him with an approval rating of about 0.5 percentage points, about the same level as independent candidate Cornel West.
He managed to get off the ballot in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, but is still on the ballot in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled to keep him on the ballot, but he appealed the decision. It is unclear how the court could rule in his favor from a practical point of view. Nearly 100,000 people have already received absentee ballots with his name printed on them.
A federal judge also ruled that Kennedy should remain on the ballot in Michigan, where the race is so close that Harris currently leads by less than 1 percentage point in the FiveThirtyEight voting average. It has become.
Other third-party candidates include Claudia de la Cruz of the Socialist Freedom Party, Joel Skousen of the American Independence Party, Randall Terry of the Constitution Party, and Joseph Kishore of the Socialist Equality Party. is included. However, none of them gained as much support as the four mentioned above.
Together, these third-party candidates have some chance of cutting into the vote gap between Harris and Trump in critical states. Still, while third-party candidates often appear to siphon votes from two-party candidates, the outcome of the election may not change even if they are not on the ballot. .
“Third-party voters can be eccentric and may not have much to gain from either side. Perhaps some of them would not vote for a major party even if it was their only choice. There may be some people who have,” Kondik said.
