Anna Fitzpatrick of BBH London argues that the way marketers approach trends needs to change to create more effective products.
Every year, a plethora of trend reports and forecasts are published. Many of them are predictable. And so many of them are listening to letters from industry. But if everyone is doing the same thing, where's the advantage? Assuming other agencies are jigging, I'd like to point out some trends that should consider jigging. I figured it out.
Let me tell you, the job of a trend writer is tough. It is impossible to publish “new” discoveries about meaningful cultural change every January.
So if you want something new to say, it's okay to read the “notable opinions” that are already out there. Then scroll through social media looking for new “examples” of “cultural change.”
Of course, there is value in building on existing thinking. And by tracking examples as they emerge, you can continue to paint the “big picture.”
But there's a problem. Research usually ends here.
Please read a lot.listening zero
Social media may have accelerated the generation of cultural “signals” (such as the viral TikTok), but broader patterns of behavior are unlikely to change from year to year. Collective norms, values, and emotions never do.
Generating ideas that resonate requires a thorough understanding of their norms, values, and emotions.
We won't be able to get there through desk research and discussions alone.
So we tried something different.
When I looked at trend reports, I noticed that similar content appeared over and over again. Will consumers connect them with their lives?
We've selected 10 recurring trending stories to tell people across the country.
Our purpose is not to prove or disprove them. Nor was it intended to reflect public opinion on a large scale. Instead, we wanted to extract some of the zags by looking at the trend from a different perspective.
Here are some of the things we found.
Identity: The “non-issue” everyone is talking about
Generally, the trend story goes like this: Identity is no longer clear. People refuse to be boxed in and express themselves more and more fragmented.
But the people we spoke to claimed that they don't think about identity at all. Much less the idea that it is “fragmented.” Rather, identity felt like a “marginal issue” and had a strong presence in the news and social media.
Permacrisis? What is permacrisis?
An oft-repeated story is that consumers want the security of what they know because the world feels more unstable than ever.
This debate brought to the surface clear generational tensions. For the elderly people we spoke to, the world is dangerous. But it's always been that way. And it will continue to be so.
In their view, the only thing that has changed is that today's young people have become less resilient and overly receptive to crisis narratives.
There's nothing real about being “real”
Trending story: Authenticity is becoming even more important to consumers.
The mention of “authenticity” brought to the fore a white-knuckle tension over how it would appear on social media.
In recent years, being “authentic” online has meant showing vulnerability. But people of all ages described how online vulnerabilities are being weaponized to gain attention and influence (think celebrity crying selfies).
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So, as vulnerability loses its resonance, young people described feeling new pressure to act cavalierly.
“Value” is actually very simple.
We often see in trend reports that the meaning of “value” is evolving.
But in the “real” world, “value” is still code for “low cost.” It's just a different story being told.
Since the cost of living has skyrocketed, people have become loud and proud about saving money. Instead of ridiculing it as a reduction in value or a loss, people are praising “low cost” as a sensible thing to do.
Stop saying the world is on fire
Sustainability has never been more important to consumers, the story goes.
But we were told that trying to live more sustainably is more work than it's worth. Small (but expensive or inconvenient) actions can feel like a drop in the ocean.
People are acutely aware of the climate crisis but feel powerless to affect change – people are tired of hearing about it. Especially from brands.
So don't just read trends.find zag
As advertisers, our job is to create work that resonates with people. That's the bottom line.
Lyricalizing about change won’t get you there. When we are isolated, we become further removed from the lives of our audiences, the people we are meant to connect with.
Playing out trend narratives against everyday life may bring implicit tensions and differences to the surface. A spark of resonant creativity.
Foresight has value. But how do people feel? It lives here and now.
