a Vox Reader asks: Maybe it's because I'm a new graduate and graduated from my bachelor's degree at Yippee in May! However, it seems everyone is very pessimistic about the recent job market. Have it been difficult to get jobs for people in recent years, or have I finally been forced to abandon my childhood naivety and wake up like the job market always does?
Congratulations on your graduation! Even amidst job market concerns, it is a real achievement worth celebrating.
The short answer to your question is, unfortunately, that economic data confirms you are confirming your senses. The job market is really challenging for new alumni for now, and it's not just about your childhood optimism fading away.
You and your companions are facing unique and tough situations. You started college during the pandemic, and now you're entering the job market, which is moving under your feet in a way that can make you feel discouraged, despite being driven by much larger economic and technological forces.
This is not the first time alumni have faced a difficult transition. The Great Recession of 2008 saw the adoption of freezes and layoffs, and new workers landed entry-level employment. After unemployment peaked in 2009, the labor market took time to heal, but steadily improved until the pandemic disrupts its progress.
What new graduates face
The first quarter number of New York Federal Reserve in 2025 shows that the unemployment rate among college graduates reached 5.8% in recent years, up from 4.8% in January.
Companies also pulled back jobs. Last fall, employers expected to increase employment for university graduates by 7.3%, according to a survey led by the National Association of Colleges and Employers. Now they are forecasting a mere 0.6% increase, with about 11% of companies planning to hire fewer new graduates than before.
Several different factors work together to create this challenging environment.
First, new tariffs have created economic uncertainty. The stock market responded accordingly, with the S&P 500 down about 6.5% since its inauguration date. As a result, businesses are reluctant to expand their workforce.
The elephants in this room were not required by the Great Recession graduates – artificial intelligence. There is evidence that AI may be affecting entry-level opportunities. The tasks performed by new university graduates (information integration, reporting) are generally consistent with what current AI can generally handle.
And although the recent unemployment rate among graduates is 5.8%, whole The unemployment rate is 4.2%, a record gap. This suggests that companies may not fire workers for AI En Massse, but may be using AI to do the work they otherwise did to new graduates.
It's obviously frustrating, just because you're “right” everything – earning a degree and preparing for the job market – to face more challenging conditions than recently.
Good news about the job market
Despite these challenges, some sectors are still actively hiring.
Healthcare accounts for 34% of gross salary profit this year. Engineering positions, particularly electronics, provide opportunities with high starting salaries (projected at $78,731). The role of special education is abundant and federal employment is contracted, but state and local governments remain strong for entry-level employment. Sales are consistently ranked among the top areas of new university graduates.
On the tariff front, things seem to be turning the corner now as stock markets digest news of President Donald Trump's recent Chinese contract. This deal will help prevent a complete recession and improve the outlets of graduate employment.
The reality is that job hunting may take longer than you wish. Over 80% of seniors told Ziprecruiter in March that they hope to start work within three months of graduation, but in reality, only about 77% of those from recent graduation classes started right away. If it takes even more time for you or your peers, it's not a personal failure – it just reflects the market you're in.
Your question asked if this was merely “how the job market has always been.” The truth is that the job market fluctuates and the timing of graduation coincides with particularly challenging periods. But the previous generation faced similar challenges, they found their way, and you probably too.
